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Insights 📈

Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Mexico's Malaise (Link)
• Demand indicators point to a divergence in transportation fuel imports into LatAm (Link)
• The Shadow Fleet Expands (Link)​

Dry 🚢

• Global Cargo Order Volumes for the Suprmaxes Under Pressure (Link)
• Reports suggest that China’s economic slowdown could pose serious challenges for farmers in Brazil (Link)
• Weekly Freight Recap: 12/09/24 (Link)

Other 🌍

• The Flag Now Being Used to Transport Drugs Across The Atlantic (Link)
• Apparel Importers Beware: Chittagong Congestion Surges (Link)
• Carriers Await Signal for Action (Link)

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The Flag Now Being Used to Move Drugs Across the Atlantic - Windward​

From Ireland’s huge cocaine bust to the fentanyl flood in the U.S., Windward attempts to keep the industry updated about the latest cat-and-mouse maneuvers involving drug smuggling. The Financial Times recently published an important news analysis:

“The Maritime Analysis and Operations Centre — Narcotics (MAOC-N), a joint US, UK and European operations centre for narcotics traffic based in Lisbon and focusing mainly on smaller vessels, has registered an increase in Polish-flagged pleasure craft suspected of carrying drugs since 2021.

While MAOC-N was monitoring 12 Polish-flagged vessels potentially linked to trafficking in 2021, that number rose to 31 in 2022 and 47 last year. Boats appear on the organisation’s radar because of intelligence tip-offs, ongoing investigations and suspicious vessel or crew movements.”

The Financial Times further notes that drug traffickers are taking advantage of a legal loophole that prevents law enforcement members from boarding Polish-flagged vessels at sea. The article states that the number of new boat registrations has rocketed from about 2,000 in Poland’s system in 2020, to almost 77,000 currently.

Russian Roulette: Will Western Owners Re-Enter The Russian Oil Trades? - Poten & Partners​

Will Western owners re-enter the Russian oil trades? The Russian oil trade after the attack on Ukraine and its impact on the tanker market is difficult to analyze because there are so many moving parts (some of which are hidden as well …). On the one hand, there are major disruptions in trade flows, which have been, in general, positive for the freight market. On the other hand, we have seen significant changes in the fleet that is servicing the Russian trade. The rapid growth of the so-called “dark fleet”, comprised of tankers that are able to side-step certain Western sanctions, has negated some of the positive dynamics for the tanker market. Because of the way some of the sanctions are structured, the level of oil prices is having an outsized impact on the Russian oil trade. Oil prices have declined significantly since the summer and if these price levels are maintained (or go even lower), there could be implications for the tanker market.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many Western (and some Asian) countries immediately signaled their disapproval by reducing or stopping imports of crude oil and refined products, while simultaneously starting to work on sanctions. Ultimately, many of these sanctions focused on the energy sector, since this was (and remains to this day) the major source of income for the Kremlin. The impact on the tanker market of the sanctions against Russia has been mixed. Initially, freight markets received a major boost. Western sanctions scrambled global trade flows as Russian oil needed to travel much longer distances, lifting ton-mile demand. This impact is still being felt. However, the results of implementing “price caps” for crude oil (in December 2022) and petroleum products (in February 2023) are less clear cut.

These price caps, which were implemented by the EU, along with the G7 countries and Australia, restrict the use of Western shipping services if prices for Russian oil exceeded a certain price cap ($60/barrel for crude oil). The crude oil price cap, which came into effect on 5 December 2022, initially had a limited impact, because Urals (the main Russian export grade) mostly traded below the $60 price cap until the summer of 2023.

This meant that Western service providers, including shipowners, P&I clubs and insurance companies were allowed to continue to service Russian export trades, all-the-while keeping a close eye on oil price developments. Most publicly trade shipping companies left the Russian trade, but many private owners continued to move Russian barrels, taking advantage of the opportunity to receive premium earnings.

Red Sea reroutings uproot traditional transhipment trends - Lloyd's List​

The fallout from the Red Sea crisis has led to a recalibration of discretionary box cargoes circulating in the region, with far-reaching consequences not just for local ports but for those much further afield too.

Shipping schedules and timetables on the lucrative east-west trades have experienced significant disruption, with carriers left with little choice but to skip sailings and limit port calls to maintain schedules.

An analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel tracking data and port volume data through the first half of 2024 reveals the true extent of the effect on trade flows, as carriers continue their impromptu migration south around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi missiles and other weaponry.

For some ports, it has meant a welcome unprecedented uptick in business. For others, whose transhipment offering is no longer to the convenience of carriers serving east-west trades, its effect has been significantly negative, particularly those that rely on those all-important wayport calls.

Lloyds’ List Intelligence shows that through the first six months of 2024, the combined sum of capacity calling KAP was down 88% compared with the first half of the past year. This included a 97.8% fall in ships with a capacity of 10,000 teu-15,000 teu from 183 in the past year to just four in 2024. In terms of 15,000+ teu units, only one such vessel called KAP in the first half of 2024, compared with 100 in the past year.

Although KAP does not publish half-year volume figures, this drastic drop from calls of ultra-large tonnage suggests equally extreme declines.

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James Littlejohn

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