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Insights 📈

Oil & Gas 🛢️

• What's next for Clean Tankers? (Link)
• ‘Big-3’ lose share of global crude exports in August (Link)
• End of the road for European Diesel? (Link)​

Dry 🚢

• Diminishing productivity and an aging population risk restricting growth in China (Link)
• Traders become increasingly concerned over the demand outlook amid weak economic data (Link)
• The week began with a subdued tone as prices for Ag Commodities decline (Link)

Other 🌍

• Unions, Unboxing & Unloading: Transport's Triple Threat This Week (Link)
• Operational Patterns of the LNG “Shadow Fleet” (Link)
• Ningbo-Zhoushan Explosion Has Minor Impact on Port Congestion (Link)

Tanker shipping’s dark fleet to keep growing until ‘margins are destroyed’ Lloyd's List​

Frontline: Sanctions and regulations won’t halt dark fleet rise, overcapacity will

THE dark fleet* is the new scrapping for tanker shipping. Tankers over 20 years old that used to go to the breakers carry cargoes for Iran, Venezuela and Russia instead. But there’s a limit to how large the dark fleet can grow, because it faces the same supply-demand fundamentals as the compliant fleet.

That upper limit will be reached “soon”, predicted Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad during a conference call on Friday.

“What we have ended up seeing is a two-tier market that is developing in front of our eyes,” he said.

“The divide between what we would refer to as the compliant and non-compliant markets has grown over the last 12 to 18 months. Currently — and this is quite surprising to some — 23% of the global tanker fleet is suspected to be or is involved in sanctioned trades.”

Frontline has its own definition of non-compliant tankers. It includes two categories: what it calls the “dark fleet”, which it defines as vessels listed by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control or United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), and the “grey fleet”, which it defines as vessels suspected of carrying sanctioned cargo based on Automatic Identification System tracking.

By this definition, Frontline calculates that 150 very large crude carriers (17% of the fleet), 131 suezmaxes (21% of the fleet), and 317 aframaxes/long range two tankers (28% of the fleet) are now non-compliant.

Frontline: 23% of global fleet suspected to be involved in sanctioned trades

Grey fleet: vessels suspected of carrying sanctioned cargo based on AIS tracking. Dark fleet: vessels listed by OFAC or UANI. Total share of sanctioned-trade involvement (23%) only relates to trades Frontline operates in: VLCC, suezmax, aframax/LR2. Source: Frontline 2Q24 investor presentation.
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Chinese oil demand continues to underperform Kpler​

Market bearishness has been driven, at least in part, by struggling Chinese oil demand. In this update, we take a look at the specifics.

Summary

• A largely unimpressive demand environment, namely due to issues in China, has weighed on bullish price impulses. In Q3, we estimate Chinese jet (+26 kbd y/y), gasoline (+80 kbd y/y), and gasoil/diesel (+87 kbd y/y) consumption will struggle to find much growth at all.
• The lack of product demand growth helps explain, at least in part, the dramatic underperformance in Chinese refinery runs. We forecast throughput will finish Q3 at just 15.2 Mbd, marking a decline of roughly 830 kbd against year-earlier levels. Runs will pick up in Q4 to 15.5 Mbd but will remain slightly under levels from the same period a year ago.
• The impacts of refinery run underperformance are having a material impact on Chinese seaborne crude imports. On a 3-month moving average basis, Chinese oil offtakes are holding at just 10.4 Mbd, down from 10.8 Mbd in June. Arrivals in July (-820 kbd y/y) and month-to-date through August (-800 kbd) are both broadly below year earlier levels.
• Brent speculative positioning certainly appears to be responding to the issues in China. At present, net longs on the Brent contract are holding just above the 52-week low in what has been a second cycle of bearishness that originally took hold in early May.

Despite what is typically the seasonal low point for oil market supply shortages, oil prices have struggled to find much traction in recent weeks. After trading above $85/bbl through June and half of July, Brent spot prices have since traded into a range between $76 and $82/bbl. Part of this is the result of a reevaluation in the geopolitical risk premium. Traders have become increasingly less concerned about an all-out war between Israel and Iran. Oil exports out of Russia have also performed better than expected through July and August. Nonetheless, the issues in Libya, which have effectively removed 1 Mbd from the market, could provide some upward pressure to oil prices in the coming weeks. For a deep dive into these supply-side dynamics, be sure to read our latest update.

Monthly Chinese Seaborne Oil Imports (kbd, top) and Y/Y Delta (kbd, bottom)

REGIONAL REACTION TO ASSASSINATIONS IN IRAN AND LEBANON Ambrey​

A. Executive Summary

• Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly authorized a direct attack on Israel.
• Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, announced an inevitable response.
• High likelihood of retaliatory strikes by Iran and Hezbollah targeting Israeli military sites.
• Possible Iranian targeting of Israeli-owned shipping in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea.
• Hezbollah may target critical national infrastructure in addition to military sites.

B. Situation

• Senior leaders of Iran-backed groups were assassinated:
  • Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in Beirut on 30 July.
  • Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July.
• Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed responsibility for Shukr’s assassination.
• Israel denied involvement in an airstrike in Iran related to Haniyeh’s death, but tensions remain high.
• Hezbollah has consistently attacked northern Israel, particularly along the Confrontation Line and Golan.

C. Analysis

• Likely Iranian retaliation similar to April 2024 events but on a larger scale:
  • Israel assassinated IRGC commander Mohammed Zahedi in April 2024.
  • Iran seized an Israel-affiliated container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Coordinated attacks using UAVs and missiles targeted Israeli military bases.
  • Israel responded with a limited attack on an Iranian S-300 air defense system.
• Possible expansion in scope to include critical infrastructure and saturation of Israeli defenses.
• Likelihood of US military sites being targeted by Iranian proxies, with remote chances of direct attacks on US-affiliated ships.
• Low probability of Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, as it would be self-damaging.
• Heightened risk to ports like Haifa and Beirut if critical infrastructure is targeted.
• Potential for an Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon if civilian targets are hit, escalating regional conflict.

D. Mitigation

• Merchant shipping calling Israeli and Lebanese ports should prepare contingency plans, including:
  • Port and vessel-specific risk assessments.
  • Emergency contact identification for ambulance and firefighting services.
  • Thresholds for suspending operations.
  • Plan of action for departures without pilot availability.
  • Shelter-in-place locations for crew if the vessel cannot depart.
  • Nominating responsible individuals for decisions.
  • Training and decision recording systems.
  • Evacuation plans for crew unable to leave via merchant vessels or air.
  • Mental health support for crew members.
• Iranian targeting of merchant shipping is based on ownership, though misidentification has occurred.
• Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz should conduct affiliation checks and risk assessments, potentially avoiding the area.

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Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

+44 (0)208 050 9806

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