Escalating Military Tensions in Libya 🚨 Red Sea's Impact on Global Ports 🌍 Russian Grain Smuggling from Ukraine πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦


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Oil & Gas πŸ›’οΈ

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Dry 🚒

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  • Iron ore and steel prices retreat (Link)
  • USDA report projected records yields for U.S corn and soybeans (Link​

Other 🌍

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ESCALATING MILITARY TENSIONS IN LIBYA - Ambrey​

This report by Global Maritime Risk Management experts, Ambrey details the recent shipment of Russian military equipment to Tobruk, Libya, highlighting the increasing Russian influence in eastern Libya and the potential ramifications on regional stability.

The political divide between Libya's rival governments is deepening, with the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Khalifa Haftar gaining military support from Russia, in violation of UN sanctions.

The rising tensions, particularly around oil production and control, pose a significant threat to the stability of Libya and could lead to localized conflict, impacting oil markets and regional security.

The situation is closely monitored by international actors, including the US, due to the potential for broader geopolitical consequences.

Incident:

  • Turkish-owned, Cameroon-flagged Ro-Ro vessel transported Russian military KamAZ trucks from Novorossiysk, Russia to Tobruk, Libya via Gemlik, Turkey.
  • Over 30 KamAZ trucks were visible on the vessel at Gemlik.
  • The vessel sailed through Turkish territorial waters and arrived in Tobruk on August 3rd.
  • Russian military deliveries to eastern Libya have increased recently, with possible monitoring by US reconnaissance flights.
  • Russian paramilitary group Africa Corps uses Tobruk as a logistical entry point into Africa.
  • UN Security Council Resolution 2578 (2021) renewed the Libya arms embargo.

Context:

  • Libya remains divided between the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the eastern-based House of Representatives supported by General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA).
  • Russian influence in eastern Libya has grown, with military shipments likely supporting both local and broader African conflicts.
  • Russian military cooperation with eastern Libya violates UN sanctions.

Analysis:

  • On August 13th, the Libyan House of Representatives dismissed the GNU, raising tensions.
  • LNA and Africa Corps units have been active near Libya's borders with Niger and Algeria.
  • The GNU has raised the alert level in the southwest amid fears of conflict.
  • Disruptions in oil production at the El Sharara field due to political disagreements between Libya’s rival governments.
  • US reconnaissance aircraft monitoring indicates increased tensions, with potential for localized military operations but unlikely full-scale civil war.

Implications:

  • Libya, Africa's largest oil producer, could see significant disruptions in oil production and maritime trade if conflict resumes.
  • Humanitarian conditions could worsen, and the risk of terrorist attacks on ports and oil infrastructure may increase.
  • Russia may benefit from higher oil prices and gain a strategic military foothold in the Mediterranean.
  • The conflict's impact on oil production and the maritime economy could be significant even if localized to southern Libya.

Russian Grain Smuggling from Ukraine - Windward​

  • ​Public sources have reported on Russia’s alleged grain smuggling from the Crimean Peninsula and its sale to third-party stakeholders since October 2022, mostly around the Kerch Strait.
  • More recently, the Ukrainian security services seized the USKO MFU (IMO: 7919781), a Cameroon-flagged and Turkish-owned 94-meter general cargo vessel, for alleged transportation of smuggled Ukrainian grain through the ports of Crimea. The vessel was intercepted in the port of Reni, Ukraine, on July 8, 2024. The vessel operated exclusively within the Black Sea near Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania, between April-July 2024, and conducted several dark activities that could be related to one of the grain smuggling patterns Windward identified years ago

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  • Based on Windward data and one of our Russian grain smuggling typologies (cargo vessels conducting dark activities within the Black Sea followed by a dark activity in the Mediterranean Sea), there was a 188% increase in dark activities conducted in the Mediterranean offloading area by vessels previously conducting dark activities in the Black Sea loading area from March-July 2024.

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  • Windward AI-powered insights illustrate that the majority of vessels that followed this typology are sailing under the flags of Russia (14%) and Panama (13%); Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Sierra Leone (9% each); Palau (8%) and Comoros (7%); and Tanzania and Comoros (5% each). The data matches the public sources, showing that while most vessels that are conducting these activities are Russian-flagged, there are also blacklisted flagged vessels and vessels using flags of convenience.

One Hundred Ports: Box ports tread water as the β€˜tepid 20s’ persist -Lloyd's List Intelligence​

This is a summary of "One Hundred Ports" created by Maritime Data​

Global Overview

  • Growth and Challenges: The global container port industry continues to experience subdued growth, a trend that has characterized the "tepid 20s." Despite a slight increase in volumes, growth remains modest compared to the pre-pandemic years. The industry faces ongoing challenges, including economic uncertainty, changing trade patterns, and the aftermath of the pandemic-related supply chain disruptions.

Regional Performance

  • China: Chinese ports have shown some recovery as pandemic restrictions have been lifted. Lloyd's note that China remains a dominant force in global shipping, with its ports continuing to handle a significant portion of the world's container traffic. However, the pace of growth has been slower than expected, reflecting broader economic headwinds facing the country.
  • Middle East: Ports in the Middle East have recorded strong growth, driven largely by economic diversification efforts in the region. Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are investing heavily in their port infrastructure, aiming to become major logistics hubs. This strategic push is part of broader national visions to reduce dependence on oil and boost other sectors like logistics and trade.

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  • North America and Europe: These regions have seen declines in port volumes, influenced by several factors. In North America, the end of the pandemic-driven freight boom, combined with economic challenges such as inflation and higher interest rates, has led to reduced container traffic. European ports are also struggling, with the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and economic stagnation contributing to a drop in volumes.

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Port Rankings

  • Shanghai's Dominance: Shanghai continues to hold its position as the world's busiest container port, underscoring China's central role in global trade. The port has managed to maintain its top ranking despite the challenges facing the industry.
  • Global Shifts: Some ports have climbed the rankings due to strategic investments and increased traffic, while others have fallen due to economic challenges and geopolitical issues.

Outlook

  • Cautious Optimism: Looking ahead, Lloyd's List suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for the industry. While growth is expected to remain modest, ongoing investments in infrastructure, particularly in emerging markets, could help support future expansion. However, the industry will need to navigate a complex array of challenges, including economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and the transition to greener shipping practices.

For a more detailed analysis, you can read the full article:


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